ElectionAnalysis.com
Archive: 03/20/2004

But this very important issue begs an equally important question. Is there ANY issue that John Kerry and the Democratic party will not try to twist and turn into some type of short-term political advantage?

Their latest suggested boondoggle is demanding that President Bush release oil from the countries National Strategic Oil Reserve! Imagine that! Oil that has been carefully and patiently reserved against a real catastrophe, and certain Democrats want it released only because gasoline prices are up!

Do these people have any idea at all what the concept of "STRATEGIC Oil Reserve" means? It doesn't mean short term political gain. It doesn't mean win votes by hopefully pushing gasoline prices down a few cents. It means- when our nation's security is put at risk by some catastrophic disruption in world oil production, we can continue to operate for 30 days or more!

Yes, the current gas price situation hurts a little. Some people might actually have to make small changes in their weekly routines to save a little on buying gas. But it is short-sighted in the extreme to suggest squandering this important, precious resource! Anyone who's ever been caught in a crisis and was able to rely on a saving account they put away for a rainy day understands this concept perfectly. And with respect to oil prices, it's NOT raining. It's not even sprinkling. It's slightly misty, with a few clouds on the horizon.

Worst of all, when the President lays out a comprehensive energy policy, which includes research on alternative energy sources and projects to greatly reduce America's reliance on foreign oil, the very same Democrats crying over gas prices do everything they can to derail it! The most ironic aspect of this is that had the Democrats not stopped it, the huge oil field beneath Alaska's National Wildlife Reserve would be today be delivering more oil per day than they are calling to be released from the Strategic Reserve. The score? Alaskan moose 1, Americans 0.

So- are there answers to this troubling situation? Of course there are. The answer is simple, just not easy. Americans are gas hogs. They drive with abandon, barely thinking about the oil consumption they are so happily participating in. Workers live 60 to 100 miles from their jobs and commute long hours every day. Freeways are jammed with single driver vehicles. Innovative devices like the EV-1 and hybrid vehicles sit unsold or are discontinued for lack of interest. And well-heeled consumers buy gas-guzzling cars with abandon.

Americans have always been innovators of new technology, and never has that gift been more important than in today's changing world. The time has come to make the decision to transition to a new, non-oil based economy. American need to fund research into hydrogen, ethanol, solar and fuel cell technology. America can lead the way. America can set itself free from it's pathetic and dangerous dependence on sources of energy over which it has very slim control.

Hydrogen, in particular hold much promise for the future. The planet has unlimited supplies, and as far as pollution- the primary byproduct of hydrogen combustion is…… WATER!

However- there is a problem. A really big problem. It's called the Democratic Party, and all the selfish, partisan Bush/Republican haters that would gladly trade a certain amount of pain, loss of life and even economic ruin for many, just so they can retain or regain political power. By scrapping oil extraction from ANWR, they have already traded our economic security in favor of a PC agenda and to placate a tiny minority who favor Alaskan moose over American independence.

Capitalism is using its money; we socialists throw it away.
- Fidel Castro

Democrats have been clamoring for President Bush to release oil destined for the strategic oil reserve, as much as a million barrels a day. Kerry is using the situation to paint the Bush administration as greedy big oil collaborators, lining their own pockets at the expense of the common man and pushing his "own" energy vision for America. The Administration has not released any oil from strategic reserves but has called for the passage of its long delayed energy bill. The one thing both sides agree on is that America needs to reduce and eventually eliminate her dependence on foreign oil.

In the short term simple economics easily explains the spike in gas prices. First to consider is the record demand, almost half a million more barrels a day than this time period last year. Second is the refinery bottleneck, gas refineries are running at approximately 96% capacity and producing an average of about 200,000 more barrels a day than this same time period last year. However it is important to note that many gas refineries have been closed in the last two decades, some say to raise prices/profits and suppress competition. Third and also extremely important is lower domestic production of crude oil-about 200,000 barrels a day less than during this same time period last year, which leads directly to higher imports at higher prices. Prices that OPEC drove up in March by agreeing to curtail production in spite of high demand.

Another important factor of gas prices is gas and oil stocks or barrels held in commercial reserves. These are near or under the lowest points of five- year averages. Other influences include increased worldwide demand fore crude oil, notably an approximately 2 million barrels a day increase in Southeast Asia.

Kerry says he would divert the input to the strategic reserve, all 104,000 barrels a day being inputted by the program. While 104,000 barrels a day wouldn’t make much of a difference a half million or million barrels a day would - according to economic theory – drive down the price of crude oil. This reduction in cost would quickly funnel into gasoline production as refinery inputs cost less. While it might not have a dramatic effect on gas prices it would definitely ease the pressure until the Saudi’s recently announced 500,000 barrels a day increase in production could reach our shores.

Unfortunately, the recent attempt to pass the Bush administration’s energy bill was, once again, unsuccessful. Three major issues stand in the way of the bill passing. First is the ANWR issue. A major point of contention between conservationists and energy supporters this exploration would detrimentally effect pristine Alaskan wilderness while relieving domestic oil pressure putting a downward trend on oil prices and imports. Leaving this area undeveloped would also increase pressure on moving away from fossil fuels. The second unresolved issue is using ethanol as an oxygenate replacement for MTBE in reformulated, lower emission, gasoline. This should be put through as it lowers emissions without harming ground water like MTBE did and helps America’s agriculture industry. Lastly is the purported tax breaks for oil production. It is important to note that these tax breaks apply primarily to small independent producers and marginal wells, only while prices are low.

Upon reading Kerry’s proposals for energy policy one might be surprised to find that he is borrowing a page or tow directly from this energy bill sitting stalled in the congress. There are a lot of really good things about this bill that are not being implemented because of a couple of contentious issues. Move on, get this bill passed and get America moving towards an independent energy situation. The one thing everyone agrees on is the $2.7 billion being spent to develop alternative, cleaner, and more efficient energy. Bush and republicans would do well to let ANWR go and Democrats should remove the other obstacles to the future of this energy bill. Finally release some oil from the reserves to immediately relieve pressure on crude oil prices and institute some kind of incentive program to build new environmentally sound refineries.

That in itself isn’t a bad thing by any means. China's economy is getting more and more industrialized everyday. There's even talk and articles that point to China’s increased demand for fossil fuels as the reason for the gas prices that are rising to the point to ridiculousness. So America solidifying its position and grasping to whatever oil it can get is a good thing.

What are missing in the president’s plan are time, trouble and toil devoted to areas that aren’t fossil fuel related. Just as the industrialization of China requires us to stockpile, so does it require us to seek our power elsewhere. When China urbanizes outside of the major cities, their demand for oil will overtake any possible supply, maybe not tomorrow, but in the future.

Supporters of the president will claim that his plan does research ways to make us less dependent upon oil – ethanol. Ethanol isn’t a new idea, and is only a replacement of oil and gas, not a bold new approach. Plus, it harms the sensibilities that the energy source, made of corn and hay and various other organic materials, could be used to feed the people in America. There are still people who go to bed hungry every night here. And ethanol burns the same way, so it’s just another thing to get hooked on.

Is there, in America, enough room to grow all the organic matter needed to make enough ethanol to power our country? Who knows? But the president has made it clear, via his energy bill, that he wants us to move in that direction.

Senator Kerry hasn’t had much to say on energy, except that he, as does the Democrat party, supports a move to release some of our stockpiles to ease this costly burden on the citizens. Would it help? No one knows for sure. As the weeks wear on and the time-frame gets tighter, look for Kerry to poke around at this and other energy strategies.

What the U.S. needs to do to cement it's future, is look at wide-scale change to the types of power used. There is enough natural gas oozing from the earth to runs cars, trucks, buses, boats, factories, and the like. Some transit systems, as well as some aspects of military transport, have already switched their motor pool to natural gas, or at least hybrids. And that’s today – that can be done today.

Tomorrow is a different story, but there’s talk of hydrogen-powered cars. There’s talk of cars that use solar energy more efficiently. There’s talk of all manner of hybrids that would ease the fossil fuel demand. But these ideas all take money. The researchers are there waiting but for the money; money on the scale that only the government can provide. Whoever is president next time around, it’s clear that the energy question has become more important than ever before.